Bitcoin (BTC) sees a cautious start to the week as macro markets hesitate and the Turkish currency loses 15% of its value overnight.
After an unsatisfactory weekend that appeared rejection for $ 60,000“Bitcoin has not yet impressed the traders who are expecting a side action in the coming days.
Cointelegraph examines five factors that could influence the development of bitcoin price action during the new week.
Everything is quiet between stocks
The picture is hesitant across stocks on Monday as concerns remain about bond yields and coronavirus biting.
It has become a well-known image for many Asian markets, and Asian markets have opened up with modest movement. The increase in economic activity is likely to support concerns about the 10-year bond Treasury revenues already at 1.7% in the United States after gaining momentum in recent weeks.
In a different tone, China revealed that it had more money for financial easing, which officials say will reduce the risk rather than add it.
“This will not only provide positive incentives for economic players, but will also help create an environment less likely to create financial risks,” said Yi Gang, governor of China’s central bank, People’s Bank of China (PBoC). he said on the weekend.
At the same time, coronavirus blocking is returning or continuing in several jurisdictions, amid anger at the lack of progress in lifting restrictions on individual freedoms despite the introduction of vaccines and the onset of spring.
Separate turbulence in Turkey has led to its national currency, the lira, shedding 15% after trading began. The entangled economy did not benefit from the decline in sentiment after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired another central bank chief.
“Turkey is choosing the worst time to fire a central banker,” market commentator Holger Zschaepitz said he replied.
“Erdogan removed the hawk Gov Agbal and replaced him with a professor who says high interest rates cause inflation.” The growing CA deficit, depleted foreign exchange reserves and inflation to 16% increase the probability of a currency crisis. “
BTC price failed
The bitcoin traders welcomed the two days of disappointment because last weekend’s rally was not a repeat performance.
While analysts predicted BTC / USD to flee sometime during Saturday and Sunday, they were unlucky, as the couple saw a firm rejection of nearly $ 60,000.
The result, which was surprising, was a drop below $ 56,000 before a slight recovery to $ 57,700 in Bitstamp at the time of this writing.
In his latest comments on the market, Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe was concerned about the events, as the bitcoins were only moving in a well-known corridor.
“Bitcoin is so good so far, and that’s great,” he said he said Twitter followers.
“The $ 55,000 area is an interesting point of interest after the $ 60,000 barrier was rejected.” I kind of expect range to the side. “
Fellow Dutch analyst and businessman Crypto Ed confirmed another slight drop and rebound overnight, with BTC / USD avoiding its scenario of falling below $ 52,000.
In another summary, Scott Melker also identified range behavior, summary price action like “still not much happening”.
Binance’s order book data highlighted the extent of consolidation active in bitcoins, with support and resistance closing at $ 56,000 and $ 59,000 on Monday.
The difficulty continues into the great unknown
Investors may long for fresh bitcoin highs, but the two foundations of the network are already in their own territory or almost intervening.
Classics forerunner prices up, hash rate and difficulty of mining underline the strength and longevity of the current bull run. The hash rate provides an estimate of the computing power reserved for processing transactions, while the difficulty is an expression of competition between miners for block subsidies.
The last automated adjustment on March 19 increased the difficulty by 1.95%, which meant returning further to uncharted territory after the previous adjustment ended negatively.
Like a Cointelegraph reported, such modifications are a basic, if not the most important, economic feature of the bitcoin network, which allows it to adapt to the changing activities of miners and maintain safety.
“Critics say that bitcoin is’ speculative ‘is that it provides no organic yield and never will, because it considers it a’ bigger fool ‘appreciation price,’ a popular Twitter account Parabolic Trav he wrote about the phenomenon earlier this month.
“They have failed to grasp the adjustment of difficulty, and the half ‘reality of a smaller supply’ opposes ‘the greater crazy theory.’ “”
The “young” coins suggest that the running of the bulls is far from complete
Other on-chain indicators, however, paint a mixed picture of exactly where bitcoin is in its bull cycle and how much price increases remain.
As far as investor sentiment is concerned, there is a lot of freedom left, as long-term planners have still not been moved to mass sales for as little as $ 60,000.
As a Glassnode analytics service he noted over the weekend, the share of coins by older investors has not yet decreased in line with previous peaks in the bull cycle, which means that there are still peaks to remain until 2021.
For about $ 53,000, bitcoins became a $ 1 trillion market capitalization asset – but it still wasn’t a sufficient incentive to wake up long-stored coins.
“This is a pretty solid price verification; $ 1T is already strongly supported by investors,” said Willy Woo commented on Glassnode data.
“I’d say there’s a fair chance we’ll never see bitcoins under $ 1 again.”
Last week, meanwhile, Cointelegraph reported even more optimistic forecasts from the creator of the PlanB price flow model, which predicts that BTC / USD will not stop at $ 100,000 and will continue at an average of $ 288,000 this year.
Exchange reserves are approaching record lows
It’s not just familiar names that favor a sequel. According to data from stock exchanges, the average hodler is preparing for the long haul and does not plan to sell.
Compiled by CryptoQuant’s on-chain source, inflows and outflows to major trading platforms are severely biased in favor of withdrawals, indicating a lack of desire to sell or trade in the short term.
In fact, the weekend was the biggest outflow since the beginning of March, just before bitcoins reached current highs of $ 61,700.
Last week, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju included a lack of exchange rates among the factors that offset some other, less impressive indicator values as part of the overall market picture. Bitcoin, on he said, is likely to take “some time” to break the $ 61,700 record.
“I think BTC will take some time to take the next position in terms of supply / demand,” he concluded.