Lebanon Before the Great Crash … How is the crisis between Marib and Riyadh resolved?

In light of the return of street movements in Lebanon and the attempt by the uprising groups to restore the emotional moment of October 17, 2019, which may not be repeated soon due to the vacuum caused by the confusion of political groups emerging from the womb of the uprising, and the authority was able to circumvent the people’s demands, for which they used all possible and available tools for their sake. The last of which is unleashing its supporters to take to the streets under the pretext and popular headlines.

Field approaches seem open to everything with the insane rise of the dollar in front of the local currency and the wars of the Lebanese taking place in food establishments, which are close to declaring their inability to buy any product, and what might result if the Lebanese decide to move towards the street, but the fear lies in the chaos that he warned against. Minister of the Interior of the Covenant, who stated that the state is no longer able to protect people.

While the army and security forces are committed until the moment in their position to protect any movement in the street without allowing chaos, according to a ceiling whose title is to confront any potential violence that may erupt in the street, this is in the form, but in the context of all the ongoing political attempts to give birth to the government prior to the expected collision and the announcement of the dissolution of the state. The Prime Minister designate, Saad Hariri, the moment he enters the White House, through efforts he is making with some of his close associates to book an appointment with Biden, who does not care about Lebanon in the foreseeable future. Hariri does not sleep at night while his mind is in Riyadh and his thinking is floating in Washington.

Initiatives, mobility and critical hours

In recent days, the Baabda-House Center line has been active in mediation and initiatives to pressure the formation of the government, but what seems clear and far from all the positive atmosphere prevailing in the media is that the two parties are clinging to their positions on the form of government and the distribution of ministers, so Aoun, who agreed to the formula for giving up a third, does not He is still demanding the Ministry of the Interior in addition to justice and defense, and this is what Hariri rejects. In addition, the country is going through a phase that it did not witness even in the stage of the civil war, where the dollar is witnessing a crazy rise that has reached the threshold of 15 thousand pounds for one dollar, while the mediators who roam between Bkerke and Beit Al-Wasat and Baabda assure the parties associated with the formation process that Lebanon is at the bottom of the dark well, that solutions are almost non-existent, and that there are a few hours after the great collapse.

The new thing is that the Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri told the mediators that the failure to give him confidence by the bloc of the President of the Republic and his son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, means reducing the share of President Michel Aoun from five ministers to three, which opened the door to a resumption of political exchanges against the background of this position, while the initiative of the President came out. The House of Representatives, Nabih Berri, was talked about and requires a return to the choice of 18 ministers, provided that it takes upon itself to present a group of names nominated for the Ministry of Interior and Justice, in order to choose from among them, but the rejection was the master of the situation by Aoun and Hariri, while the Hezbollah delegation is waiting for the return from Moscow To know what can be done in light of the Russian emphasis on supporting Hariri and refusing to grant the Free Patriotic Movement the obstructing third in the government, and this is what was expressed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who received the delegation of Hezbollah and heard them the Russian position on the Lebanese crisis.

While the President of the Republic insists that the formula of 18 ministers has become a thing of the past, and that the proposed formulas start from 20 to 22 ministers, the President of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt came after his meeting with Hariri regarding that the fixed formula is 18 ministers, who was quoted as rejecting the principle of expanding the government, and that There are no developments in the government scene as long as the President and his son-in-law are still adhering to their conditions, while he believes that the solution lies in reaching a formula that satisfies all forces, without the impossible conditions that are issued period after period.

Saudi Arabia and the inevitable “no”

Perhaps what is happening between Saad Hariri and Saudi Arabia is a rare political precedent that did not happen except in the anecdotes of the era. Saudi Arabia has refused until the moment to grant Hariri a support visa to his government, its ambassador who now receives and bids farewell to all guests and visitors who did not land in the House of Center and did not meet Hariri, but rather went up to visit the President of the Forces Party Lebanese Samir Geagea, who is enthusiastic about the Saudi proposal to remove Hariri from the government, because it is a trap set for him, and accordingly, Walid Al-Bukhari – the Saudi ambassador in Beirut – did not initiate Hariri’s direction, neither by visit nor even by contact, despite efforts made by some to secure a meeting between the two sides, but Al-Bukhari He is still dealing in accordance with the Saudi policy set for Lebanon, which is that Saad Hariri’s page has been folded forever – this is what it seems so far – and this policy is embodied by refusing to receive the Saudi Crown Prince Hariri, and asserting that the ruling is issued after the formation of the government, as long as there are touches to the party God in the government scene that provokes the kingdom.

Despite the positive American atmosphere that affected the government file first, through the words of the American ambassador, Dorothy Shea, who spoke about the need to quickly form a government to stop the crises, and her meeting with Hariri in the Center House, and according to what resulted from their meeting, Hariri asked Shia to arrange a meeting for him at the White House. However, Chia confirmed to Hariri that its administration is studying its priorities in the region, and the date may be delayed in the foreseeable future, and according to insiders, Hariri reiterated to Shia the request to set the date in order to be able to persuade Washington to pressure bin Salman to support his government if it was formed, but there is no actual answer yet. Riyadh is deaf to Hariri.

In light of the Saudi clinging to its position on Lebanon, there are more than the local reasons for Hezbollah’s external moves, which began in Moscow. The eye is on the Yemen file, and the race is between the ongoing negotiations led by the Turkish-Qatari diplomacy to stop the Houthi expansion, and between the military confrontation and the possibility of the fall of Marib. If it falls, it means that Saudi national security is in Iran’s crosshairs, while Hezbollah’s allies are discussing linking the Yemeni issue with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s return to help Lebanon, as a temporary trade-off to pass the time before the grand agreement.

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