Efforts to bring peace to Yemen, most recently the Saudi initiative, may represent bad news in Tehran, and these settlement efforts also represent a watershed test of the nature of the alliance between Iran and the Houthi militia.
And suspended Iran On the initiative launched by Saudi Arabia for a ceasefire and settlement in Yemen by saying, “Tehran is ready to support any peace initiative based on ending the aggression, a comprehensive ceasefire, ending the occupation, lifting the economic blockade, and starting political negotiations.” Without foreign intervention. “
She added, “Despite numerous allegations of stopping support for the war, the flow of weapons to the Arab coalition, including the necessary technical support, continues, and she claimed that there are military experts from some countries working alongside the Saudis in the war on Yemen” (referring to the West. ).
The biggest beneficiary of the Yemen war
Tehran’s leaders are investing heavily in the war in Yemen, through technical knowledge and the provision of weapons over the six years of the war, along with political capital through the close alliance between Iran and the Houthi militias.
As the war continued, the Houthis were portrayed as rebel forces of the indigenous population who came from the mountains of Yemen, in the face of the invading Saudi Arabia.
In light of the nature of the alliance between Iran and the Houthi militias, and the difficulty of the Saudis and their allies, Tehran is the biggest beneficiary of the war, given the low cost it pays in exchange for the great pressure of this war on Saudi Arabia and on the Western countries that support it, especially from the moral and financial aspects.
The nature of the relationship between Iran and the Houthi militia: alliance or subordination?
It is difficult to determine the nature Relationship Between Iran and the Houthi militia, and is it an alliance or a subordination of the Houthis to Tehran?
Unlike Hezbollah (which is directly affiliated with the Iranian supreme leader), the Houthis cannot be described as religious and political followers of Iran, even though they are considered an important member of the vast Shiite umbrella led by Iran, whose members prefer to call it the axis of resistance.
Although the Houthis belong to The Jarudian Doctrine It is the closest in the Zaydi Shiites to the Twelver Shiite sect, and although they have come close religiously, politically and logistically to Iran in recent decades, there are Disagreements Among those interested in the Houthis about the fact that they have converted to the Twelver Shiite sect or that they have only become closer to it.
Consequently, there are no strong indications that they are following Khamenei’s religious authority despite their apparent admiration for the Iranian model and its leaders, especially the leader of the Iranian revolution, Khomeini, the current guide Ali Khamenei, and the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.
Therefore, the Houthis can be described as part of the Shiite umbrella led by Iran and that they are unequal allies of Iran, allies influenced by the Iranian position and Iranian trends, but not necessarily that they implement Iranian orders with the same precision as Hezbollah.
They can be seen as a middle stage between unequal allies and followers of Tehran.
Why is Yemen so important to Tehran?
Iran is seeking to gain a greater foothold for itself in Yemen, on the side of Saudi Arabia and the Arab world. Rather, it is on the side of the whole world thanks to its coasts overlooking the Bab al-Mandab strait.
In light of the current relationship between Iran and the Houthi militia, and the failure of the Saudis to resolve the war after seven years of the Canal, Tehran believes that it has outperformed Saudi Arabia and the United States in this file, according to the description of a newspaper. The Jerusalem Post Israeli.
Iran initially sought to use the war there as a test phase for new munitions, and provided its expertise in the field of long-range ballistic missiles, as well as developing drones for the Houthis.
It is believed that the military relationship between Iran and the Houthi militia provided an opportunity for Tehran to develop various drones and missiles by waging realistic battles in Yemen.
The guide seems to want the war in Yemen to continue
To understand the way Iran has sought to exploit the war in Yemen, one can look at Iranian media reports. This regime offers its support by celebrating every Houthi drone attack against Saudi Arabia, as a success. Rather, he sometimes publishes Houthi accounts of targeting Saudi Arabia, when the attacks unfold. It is also interviewing Houthi leaders to send messages to the United States and Saudi Arabia about the upcoming threats.
However, recent tweets by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, show the nature of the relationship between Iran and the Houthi militia, or at least Tehran’s view of this relationship, and how it is trying to exploit it for its own interests.
On the evening of Sunday, March 21, the Supreme Leader wrote: “The Saudis began the war on Yemen with a green light and great military assistance from the democratic Obama government, with this vision: throwing enough bombs on the heads of the defenseless Yemeni people! They will make them surrender in a month, for example.”
It is interesting that he referred to the Obama administration specifically and to the Democratic Party in particular, as if he was trying to spoil the Biden administration’s efforts to stop the war after it had already reduced its support for the Saudi military operation in Yemen.
He added in his tweet: “Now six years have passed and they have not been able to satisfy this people,” referring to the Houthis. “They made a big mistake,” he continued. He went on to call for the United States to be held accountable for giving Riyadh the green light in 2015.
He wrote in Tweets Another: “You, the Americans, did you know what the affliction you were entering Saudi Arabia into? If you knew, woe to your allies for your behavior with them in this way!
The tweets offer an interesting view of Iran’s leadership and policy in Yemen.
On one level, they depict how they blame the United States for the Saudi war in Yemen.
The guide’s tweets indicate a clear exploitation of the war in Yemen in Iran’s conflict with Saudi Arabia.
But the most dangerous thing is that his assertion of the difficulty of Saudi Arabia getting out of the predicament of Yemen, his unwillingness, or even his reference to the efforts to achieve a peace settlement that have escalated recently, confirms the conclusion reached by many analysts, which is “Iran will not welcome any settlement in Yemen that precedes the solution to the crisis of its nuclear file“.
Because among all the files that are stuck in the region, the Yemen war is the least expensive tool for Iran to pressure Saudi Arabia, the biggest ally of the United States with, and the presence of the Yemen war in the equation will improve Tehran’s negotiating cards in its nuclear file.
Now, Iran appears to be witnessing setbacks to the Yemeni forces it supported in Marib. In addition, the chaos in Aden did not help them either.
“The Arabs’ Vietnam” .. Yemen was one of the reasons for Egypt’s defeat in the 1967 War
Iran’s messages suggest that they believe they have put the Saudis in trouble. In the words of the Supreme Leader, a campaign that seemed easy has become a “quagmire,” and Iran wants to keep it that way. This is not the first time that such a war has occurred in this mountainous Arab country.
Egypt also entered Yemen in the sixties of the last century, and found itself in a quagmire not different from the one in Vietnam, in which America entered, which allegedly damaged its ability to move its forces to confront Israel in 1967, according to the Israeli newspaper.
Iran’s hinting that Riyadh cannot extricate itself now suggests that Tehran wants to keep Saudi Arabia in Yemen, besieging it and testing its drones and missiles on Saudi Arabia. The message is clear. Iran hopes that the proxy war will prove its ability to be a decisive war, and that it is then able to use the same tactics it used in Yemen against the United States in the region, and against its allies and partners, including Israel.
But the most dangerous thing is that the leader’s stances may be inferred from which Tehran may impede efforts to settle the Yemeni crisis, and most recently The recent Saudi initiative to achieve peace in Yemen.
This will represent a true test of the nature of the relationship between Iran and the Houthi militia, and will they yield to Tehran’s desire to make Yemeni blood a bargaining tool in the Iranian nuclear file crisis, or will they inject their blood and the blood of Yemenis and tend to peace.